Sunday, December 15, 2013

Checking in on the First Obamacare Million

Article PhotoOn November 28 I welcomed the first million enrollees under ACA, whether to marketplace policies or Medicaid/SCHIP. The post was based on the fragmentary data available at the time, brought together in Charles “brainwrap” Gaba’s invaluable running spreadsheet, with some extra tweaks and guesswork by me.
I made four adjustments to brainwrap’s data. The first three - taking out those transferred administratively from state low-income health plans to Medicaid, which HHS doesn’t count either; extrapolating the interim data from the state websites to the end of the month; and extrapolating healthgov Medicaid enrollments in the same way - were OK. They gave me an adjusted total of 1,167,000, as close to the outturn as only a fluke can be.
My mistake was grossly overestimating the number of signups to private policies on healthgov. My reasoning was that 673,000 people had eligibility determinations from healthgov on 2 November and had not yet chosen a policy. Surely they would chose one in November? Well, most of them haven’t. Thetotal signups in November were only 110,000.
The number of such ditherers on healthgov has risen to an impressive 1,388,000, plus another 554,000 on state exchanges. On the latter, ditherers outnumber signups 2:1, with considerable variation between states; on healthgov, by 10:1.
i think all this back and forth and republican stuill referring to ACA with negative adjectives doesn'tr help not to mention their out right rejection not so much to ACA but most egregiously to their constituents,
 like their attempts to hurt Pres. by default they are hurting "we the people" Pres. and his family like those obstructors  and theirs are fine we are the ones suffering the sooner we realize it's not Pres.'s policy that is killing us it's republican blockades.
  • Rick Perry, Rick Scott, and all the other GOP politicians betting on Obamacare to fail will have egg on their faces.
 No egg is visible in their mirrors of course. Those conservative critics with an open line to reality are reduced to whingeing: people aren’t really enrolled until they pay the first premium (that must come as a shock to many!), there’s a big hill to climb to meet the March goal, etc. (Cf. Sybil Fawlty, “special subject - the bleeding obvious”. )
i really feel that the frepublican governors opposition and refusal to comply does more damage then the Progressive failure to communicate the facts and correct republican misinformation in a timely fashion like 5 years ago!!!