At the start let me say what this isn't. This is not an unskew the polls diary. In fact, this is the opposite: this is a data driven diary that is based on one simple table. These are the averages for all polls in October and November where the results found a margin of less than two points. Honestly I didn't think I would find anything. But the evidence is clear. There is a consistent bias against Democrats.
Why am I the only one seeing this? Honestly, most don't have data that goes back as far as I do (I think 538 goes back to '04).
So why would this happen? In June of 2012 I wrote a diary entitled "Are cell phones resulting in biased polls against Democrats?". In it I noted that minorities and the young were far more likely not to have a landline than the rest of the population. This became apparent in the aftermath of 2012.
Something else no one seems to have noticed. Every telephone poll of the national 2012 Presidential Election Understated Obama's margin. The last time this happened was 1980! This is not new, though. The Generic Ballot polling was pretty bad in 2010 as well.there is no surprise really for me I've always questioned right wing leaning polls who show the republicans as the favored ones that I refused to believe because of all I've written over the years in contrast to what they are saying about themselves. like 2012 Dems won house popular vote by a million plus due to gerrymandering the republican robbers stayed in place but they are bragging that"we the people" put them back in office.
remember the Rove meltdown live on Fox when he realized that 300 million plus he spent did not get Romney in the WH. but all the long the touted his taking the Pres. down, now they are doing the same thing for midterms and will continue for 2016. understand they are banking only on their perception that we will not turn out and vote midterm that my friends is the same mistake they made for 2012 general, they are banking on their stereotyping of us, time to close their account.
