Tuesday, January 20, 2015

No, No, They Won't


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/no-no-they-wont

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Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) says Senate Republicans will not sign on to the House's new Social Security crisis ploy or any effort to cut benefits ... unless they have Democratic support. This is quite believable. Indeed, it's the major lesson of the Bush era Social Security phase-out debacle from back in 2005.
The key back in 2005 was that there was widespread but vague support for Bush's phase out plan in the GOP caucus. There was general opposition from the Democrats (then in the minority in both chambers). But quite a few Democrats refused at first to state clearly where they stood and still others treated the debate as one they were willing to participate in in good faith. (In seldom in politicians' individual interests to state clear positions until the politics and constituency group alignments are clear.)
As long as that was the case, President Bush was in a strong position.
In all legislative fights, lack of detailed information, generalized senses of where each caucus's head is, works against voters trying to understand what's happening. Caucuses don't vote. People vote. As more Dems were pressed to say no, the light shined brighter on the decreasing number of those unwilling to tell voters where they stood. The fewer there were, the less able they were to hold out. As is often the case in life, there's safety in numbers and peril alone.
As the debate unfolded, it became clear that if Republicans pushed a partial phase out of Social Security they would get no cover from Democrats. And that was the beginning of the end. More Republicans bailed out. That pushed more Democrats to run toward the caucus position of complete rejection. The two processes catalyzed and built upon each other.
That's the same logic McConnell is employing here.
But there's a catch. It's actually not up to McConnell. Because of the legislative dynamics of the question, Senate Republicans don't need to do anything. Simply by refusing to push through a standard reallocation between the Trust Funds, House Republicans can force a crisis.
so basically they have the majority but still need Dems and if they don't get them and do that nothing that they do so well SS and millions of Americans can go down the tubes again as a result of republican party of do nothing.  do they realize Pres. might not be able to clean up this time two years and their continued dedication to blocking him is not enough time, so if we find ourselves going backward the blame is still the same.  this scenario fits Cruz and the tea peoples agenda perfectly and they are just arrogant enough to do it.  see what happens when you stay home?