http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57536397/confused-by-all-the-polls-pollsters-explain-the-variation/?tag=AverageHero;leadHed
just a little heads up so as to not fall into the abyss of American politics.
The latest polls out of Wisconsin and Iowa, meanwhile, show Mr. Obama with a modest but clear lead in the two battleground states.For what it's worth, a CBS News/YouGov simulation this week showed that, had the election been held at that point in time, Mr. Obama would have held a slight Electoral College edge. This simulation, however -- as with every survey -- represents no more than a snapshot in time."Poll results reflect the mindset of voters during the time the poll was conducted," CBS News director of surveys Sarah Dutton explained. "Those voters can change their minds later, or decide not to vote, or not be able to get to the polls on Election Day to vote."
Even among polls conducted over the same span of time, different methodologies -- whether it's differences in the way survey samples are chosen or differences in the way the surveys are conducted -- can lead to different results.
"It's certainly important to understand whether a poll includes calls to cell phones, whether it's done online, whether live interviewers ask the questions, when the poll was conducted - those are all part of a poll's methodology," Dutton said. "Consumers of polls should be aware that not all polls are conducted the same way, and some utilize a more rigorous methodology than others."Furthermore, some polls track registered voters while others track likely voters -- and pollsters may differ in how they determine who is a "likely voter." Some polls look at people who say they will definitely vote, Dutton said, while others identify likely voters based on their responses to a number of questions, such as past vote history, whether they know where their voting place is, and whether they will definitely vote in this election.
i have always looked at it as no one has ever called me or anyone i know or they know to poll in a federal election, so that tends to lend credibility to this article as selective polling, you will tend to favor the demographic the people who solicit your services
